5 Predictions for the Post-Pandemic Church
As the vaccine rollout continues, the dream of a post-pandemic reality comes more and more into focus. As we’ve known all along, at some point, this will be over. That day draws nearer every day. What does this mean for churches? What does a return to “normalcy” look like? No matter the church, COVID has brought a level of disruption. No matter the level of the disruption, “normalcy” will not quite be like stepping into February 2020. We’re not going back. Much will look different. So with humility, here’s my list of 5 predictions for the post-pandemic church.
1. Some won’t come back. Some friends who sat in our pews last February won’t be coming back. There are various reasons for this. First, for those already considering a change in their church participation (either changing churches or withdrawing altogether), the past year makes that change easier. The natural break of this past year likely accelerates any contemplated changes. Second, the continued rise of virtual church will keep some at home. Much of this was already in motion, yet livestream worship has improved in quality and quantity. In an over scheduled, busy society with a penchant for choice, it enables people to worship when and where they want. Compare it to TV viewing. Remember the days of rushing home to catch your favorite show? No one does that anymore. We TiVo it. We stream it. The idea that you have to watch at a certain time seems antiquated. That proliferation of choice has come to worship. The impressiveness and convenience of the technology will keep some at home. Third, some blame the discord and division of the past year on the church. They believe that too often the church has festered racial and political wounds more than healed them. This past year has caused them to reconsider their relationship with church. Whether we agree with them or not on this, it’s wise to listen. Finally, the immense challenges of this last year have tested the faith of many. From a belief perspective, not everyone made it. Some lost faith. It’s heart breaking to acknowledge, but it’s true. We must not give up on them. Still, we have to be prepared. For some, they’re not coming back this year.
2. Most will come back and value it more. Most of my ministry friends tell me they’ve seen about half of their church in person at some point during the pandemic. Certainly, there are exceptions, but most tell me their weekly in person attendance runs about 30-40% of what it did a year ago. As the pandemic ends, that number will certainly cross the halfway point and rise as people trickle in over the coming months. For the majority that return, they will come back changed, and that biggest change will be the following. We will appreciate being together like never before.
I think of my grandparents. Granny used to stop to pick up pennies on the sidewalk. She liked cliché expressions such as “there’s no free lunch” and “a penny saved is a penny earned.” Why? She lived through the Great Depression. That experience shaped her like no other. She was never the same again. The 2020 pandemic is our “once in a lifetime” event. We experienced a long and profound absence of physical and social contact. We will never be the same again. Just as Granny picked up pennies, I’ll savor hugs, handshakes, and crowded, joyful rooms for the rest of my life. Friends keep asking me what I’m looking forward to the most. Two things. I can’t wait to see the hustle and bustle of before and after worship. The kids running. People laughing. Babies crying. I can’t wait. Second, I can’t wait to look friends in the eye and say, “How are you doing?” It’s more than what they’ll say. I’ll be able to look them in eye (not just on Zoom or over the phone or behind a mask), and I’ll truly know how they’re doing before they even answer. When you know someone well, their face often tells the story. For those of us who come back, we’ll value it more than ever.
3. Churches will reevaluate their ministries. I miss being with people in worship. I miss much of our ministries which we’ve ceased or done differently this past year. But I don’t miss everything. I’ve heard this from so many friends. As we talk about what we miss, the conversation often goes to, “I don’t miss ____________.” This season has brought a clarity of purpose. Some things churches did seem more important than ever, but some things seem pointless and time wasters. Therefore, there’s never been a better time for churches to make adjustments and changes. Your church may have this big event or program that goes way back. Every year, people wonder, “Is this worth it? Why do we still do this?” Consider taking advantage of this disruption by cancelling what needed to be cancelled long ago. Moreover, many have enjoyed the less rushed schedules of pandemic life. I believe many churches will declutter their calendars, cancel time wasters, and reinvest in the things that truly matter.
4. Churches will distinguish majors from minors. The past year has made us ask a lot of big questions. What does it mean to be a Christian? What are the essential and non-essentials? The pandemic made many lean on their spiritual foundation only to realize their foundation was not solid. They rested on a watered-down version of the gospel which was ill prepared to shelter them in this storm. This experience demonstrates the enormous need to drill down the essentials of the Christian faith. At the same time, in the midst of this crisis, the obsession with minors has proven untenable. With all we’ve gone through, churches that cling to exceptionally narrow views and forever argue about the “color of the carpet” (so to speak) will not be able to survive. Turning a minor belief into a major doctrinal point seems rightfully out of touch. Amidst the backdrop of the longer 50-year decline in Americans who identify as Christian, we’ll see less and less focus on the small things. Therefore, more and more churches will be teaching and preaching on core biblical truths.
5. Social/emotional health will become the number one ministry focus. The other day, I had a driveway visit with a close friend who works in the mental health world. He talked about a second wave after the pandemic, a second wave of mental health issues. Some experts wonder about increases in abuse and depression during lockdowns, but we don’t know for sure what has happened. Once society completely returns, we’ll slowly discover all that took place behind closed doors. How many marriages encountered extreme crisis? How many became addicted to drugs and alcohol during those prolonged stays at home? How many quit talking to close friends and family members because of disputes on the election and mask wearing? We just don’t know, but my guess is this…a lot. The biggest task of the church in the next few years will be helping people heal up socially and emotionally. When everyone comes back, we’ll bring our pain with us. It will take some time to sift through all of that, but it will be a vital work.
As we’ve always known, as some point this will end. But when we come back, we’ll come back changed. You can’t dip your toe in the same river twice. Church life will be different. Yet, Jesus is the same. Therefore, I’m not frightened. Jesus is the same yesterday, today, and forever. As we come back, Jesus will be with us. That’s not simply a prediction. It’s the truth.
